Ranking the 14 playoff quarterbacks based on NGS’ new Passing Score metric

Ranking the 14 playoff quarterbacks based on NGS’ new Passing Score metric

The Next Gen Stats team is proud to introduce our contemporary Passing Fetch, which evaluates a quarterback’s execution on every targeted run strive and interprets it to a savory ranking between 50 to 99. We joined forces with the AWS Proserve info science team to develop this comprehensive metric powered by an ensemble of seven assorted machine-studying models. Our goal used to be to enhance upon the dearth of context surrounding the division of credit score in old box-ranking-derived metrics.

The consequence is a scalable metric that enables us to analysis a passer’s performance across any aggregation of makes an are attempting — whether or not that be at the sport-level, the season-level, or in football-converse splits. The Passing Fetch reduces a fancy mannequin correct into a straightforward ranking that is easy to occupy across any smash up.

This season, 13 of the stop 15 quarterbacks by NGS Passing Fetch made the playoffs, with Justin Herbert (89, 5th) and Matt Ryan (83, 13th) because the uncommon men out.

Upfront of Big Wild Card Weekend, we occupy ancient the NGS Passing Fetch to execrable the 14 passers main their groups into the postseason. With out extra ado, let’s smash down the profiles of every QB1 who did non-public the playoffs.

Inexperienced Bay Packers
·
Yr 17

Passing Fetch: 92 Detestable among 31 certified QBs: 1stLast 3 seasons: 2020: 99 (1st) | 2019: 88 (13th) | 2018: 85 (19th)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +171.5 (3rd)EPA/strive: +0.34 (1st)Handiest sport: Week 2 vs. Lions (91)It is rarely any twist of fate that Rodgers led the NFL in our contemporary Next Gen Stats Passing Fetch for the 2nd consecutive season and the Packers are the first team to repeat because the No. 1 seed within the NFC for the reason that 2013-14 Seahawks. The reigning MVP is seemingly to was the first participant to decide the award in wait on-to-wait on seasons in bigger than a decade. Whereas Rodgers did not rather reach the heights of his 2020 marketing campaign (his 99 ranking in 2020 ranks because the absolute top single-season ranking over the closing four seasons), his elite passing efficiency positions him properly for his 2nd MVP trophy in as many seasons.

The significant to Rodgers’ success? Fending off antagonistic plays. By embracing Matt LaFleur’s mercurial-passing sport (2.63-2nd moderate time to throw, 4th-fastest among QBs), Rodgers has been in a position to lead some distance flung from tension (20.1% tension rate, 3rd-lowest), and non-public clear, low-risk choices (2.7% moderate interception likelihood, 3rd-lowest). His 95 passing ranking on mercurial passes this season (i.e., when time to throw is decrease than 2.5 seconds) is the 2nd-absolute top mercurial-passing ranking of any certified quarterback over the closing four seasons.

Key scores by misfortune:

Quick passes: 95 (1st)Throughout the deal with box: 93 (1st)Vs. no blitz: 93 (1st)

Cincinnati Bengals
·
Yr 2

Passing Fetch: 91Detestable among 31 certified QBs: 2ndLast Season: 2020: 87 (16th)Total Cross EPA on Attempts: +167.6 (4th)EPA/Strive: +0.33 (2nd)Handiest Game: Week 16 vs. Ravens (91)Two words accurately characterize Burrow’s 2nd season within the NFL: constant and aggressive. Burrow earned the 2nd-absolute top NGS Passing Fetch among quarterbacks this season (91) after ending 14 of his 16 video games with a sport ranking of a minimum of 81, tied for the most such video games within the NFL this season (with Justin Herbert). The old No. 1 total remove is additionally getting sizzling at the superb time: Three of his most productive performances of the season (by the NGS Passing Fetch) came over his closing four video games.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Sprint has no doubt benefited the young signal-caller’s style, critically within the vertical passing sport. Burrow leads the NFL with 12 TD passes focused on run routes this season (seven of which occupy long gone to Sprint), after throwing easiest one landing run focused on a run route as a rookie. It is obvious Burrow trusts his receivers to decide 50-50 balls (or 60-40 within the case of Sprint and Tee Higgins) as is evident from his excessive tight-window throw rate (19.2%, 2nd-absolute top among QB) and excessive moderate interception likelihood (3.9%, additionally 2nd-absolute top).

Key Scores by Direct:

Under tension: 88 (3rd)Vertical routes: 99 (T-1st)Third down: 99 (T-1st)

Los Angeles Rams
·
Yr 13

Passing Fetch: 91 Detestable among 31 certified QBs: 3rdLast 3 Seasons: 2020: 89 (13th) | 2019: 93 (5th) | 2018: 81 (27th)Total Cross EPA on Attempts: +175.4 (2nd)EPA/Strive: +0.29 (3rd)Handiest Game: Week 13 vs. Jaguars (89)Stafford has set together one in every of the ideal campaigns of his profession in his first season below head coach Sean McVay. Stafford’s expertise as a passer has allowed McVay to get the practicing wheels off his offense and evolve. The results discuss for themselves: Stafford led the NFL in total passing EPA on all dropbacks this season (+111.4), and the excessive-powered offense helped the Rams claim their first division title since 2018 despite defensive regression.

When Stafford has been on his sport this season, the Rams had been nearly unstoppable. He has recorded a passing ranking above 87 in eight video games, three bigger than any assorted QB, and the Rams occupy obtained these video games by a mean margin of two touchdowns. The flip aspect to that coin, on the replacement hand, is when Stafford has struggled, so occupy the Rams. Stafford has had five video games this season where he earned a passing ranking below 80, three bigger than every of the assorted quarterbacks within the stop 3. The Rams occupy lost four of these five video games, with a mean margin of -10 points.

Key Scores by Direct:

Vs. blitz: 99 (T-1st)In-rhythm: 99 (1st)Crimson zone: 95 (1st)

Tennessee Titans
·
Yr 10

Passing Fetch: 89 Detestable among 31 certified QBs: 4thLast 3 seasons: 2020: 92 (9th) | 2019: 98 (1st) | 2018: 76 (31st)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +92.2 (14th)EPA/strive: +0.19 (12th)Handiest sport: Week 7 vs. Chiefs (90)Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans weathered a season elephantine of injuries to key gamers to gain the AFC’s high total seed. Really, the Titans became the first team for the reason that 2017 Eagles to gain a No. 1 seed despite having no participant with 1,000 dashing or receiving yards in a season. Tannehill and his fourth-ranked 89 NGS Passing Fetch positively used to be key to the Titans’ ability to outlive their injuries. Tannehill became in his most productive performance of the season in Tennessee’s decide over Kansas Metropolis in Week 7, which gave the Titans the pinnacle-to-head tie-breaker that clinched them a first-round bye this weekend. 

Whereas Tannehill ranks internal the stop five, the passing ranking doesn’t component in sacks, an anxiety where Tannehill has struggled this season. Handiest Joe Burrow took extra sacks than Tannehill this season, because the Titans QB used to be taken down on 8.1 p.c of his dropbacks (sixth-absolute top rate within the league). Regardless, Tannehill used to be an above-moderate passer in nearly every key NGS category. The ideal smash up he scored within the underside 10 of qualifying QBs, deep passing, used to be seemingly related to the aforementioned injuries. 

Tannehill remained productive this season despite playing late a porous offensive line that ranked 2nd-worst in Next Gen Stats tension likelihood. Both his third-ranked mercurial-passing ranking and his 10th-ranked below tension ranking be aware his elite ability to outlive without solid run blockading. With the return of All-Skilled Derrick Henry on the horizon, opposing defenses may maybe well fair mute be cautious of a elephantine-strength Titans offense within the playoffs.

Key scores by misfortune:

Quick passes: 88 (3rd)Throughout the deal with box: 89 (4th)Play-dash: 91 (Seventh)

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
·
Yr 5

Passing Fetch: 89Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 6thLast 3 seasons: 2020: 94 (sixth) | 2019: 91 (10th) | 2018: 96 (1st)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +179.6 (1st)EPA/strive: +0.29 (4th)Handiest sport: Week 14 vs. Raiders (91)For the fourth straight season since being named the Chiefs’ starter, Mahomes will birth the playoffs with a home sport. On the replacement hand, thanks to the team’s slack commence, he’ll be making his first wild-card look of his profession this weekend.

Whereas mute among the elite, Mahomes’ performance dipped this season compared with his unbelievable standards, as it marked the first season he did not get a 91 or higher passing ranking. Even in a “down” year, Mahomes scored internal the stop 10 in 13 key NGS passing splits. Whereas he threw a profession-excessive 13 interceptions this season, six had been tipped by a Chiefs receiver earlier than being intercepted. If truth be told, Mahomes in most cases set the ball in disaster’s procedure; his passes averaged a 2.3 p.c interception likelihood this season, the bottom within the NFL. Mahomes used to be the most straightforward QB to throw into tight home windows on decrease than 10 p.c of his throws this season (8.7%) and he had the absolute top originate throw rate (54%).

Defenses are starting up to defend Mahomes in any other case than his counterparts, blitzing him on correct 12 p.c of dropbacks — the bottom for any QB within the Next Gen Stats technology (since 2016). Or not it is a sound strategy pondering Mahomes has a 99 ranking in opposition to the blitz (T-1st within the NFL), compared with an 85 ranking in opposition to non-blitzes (11th most productive). His ability to dominate when blitzed is seemingly the live results of his mercurial-passing prowess, as he holds three of the stop five NGS season passing scores on mercurial passes.

Key scores by misfortune:

On the sprint: 92 (1st)Third down: 99 (T-1st)Quick passes: 94 (2nd)

Passing Fetch: 88Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 7thLast 3 seasons: 2020: 95 (4th) | 2019: 83 (22nd) | 2018: 75 (32nd)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +107.0 (12th)EPA/strive: +0.17 (14th)Handiest sport: Week 3 vs. Washington (92)Following his breakout marketing campaign in 2020, Allen led the Funds to their 2nd straight AFC East title this season. Drafted as a uncooked prospect, the fourth-year professional continues to develop as a passer, seeing his ranking develop continuously from 2018 to 2020 earlier than taking a cramped step wait on this season. Total, the old first-rounder has grown into one in every of the most unhealthy passers within the league, scoring within the stop five in a whopping 10 assorted key NGS passing splits.

Allen’s predominant strength remains his cannon-love arm, which made him such a involving prospect popping out of Wyoming. He demonstrated that arm ability this season, scoring a 99 on intermediate (10-19 air yards), deep (20+ air yards) and vertical route passes this season (all tied for 1st). On the assorted hand, the troubles over Allen’s unrefined quarterbacking did demonstrate itself with his 79 ranking versus the blitz this season. 

For the fourth straight season, Allen rushed for bigger than 400 yards. Key to Allen’s evolution as an NFL quarterback has been the marriage between his mobility and his passing ability. This season, Allen wielded that mobility to gargantuan success, scoring internal the stop three in passing on the sprint, outside the deal with box and with extended dropbacks. 

Key scores by misfortune:

Intermediate: 99 (T-1st)Extended passes: 99 (1st)Vs. no blitz: 91 (3rd)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
·
Yr 22

Passing Fetch: 88 Ranking among 31 certified QB: 8thLast 3 seasons: 2020: 93 (Seventh) | 2019: 85 (17th) | 2018: 91 (Eighth)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +148.4 (Seventh)EPA/strive: +0.21 (11th)Handiest sport: Week 5 vs. Dolphins (92)At 44 years ragged, Brady begins his pursuit of his memoir eighth Big Bowl ring. Whereas Brady will non-public his 46th playoff commence this weekend, the assorted 11 starting up QBs occupy began a mixed 44 playoff video games. Leading the league in run makes an are attempting, Brady ranked first in completions, yards (5,316) and touchdowns (43). From an efficiency standpoint, Brady did not occupy a standout season by his lofty standards. He checks in because the eighth-most productive passer this season with an 88 NGS Passing Fetch — a cramped decline from his 93 passing ranking closing season. 

It is obligatory to display that the passing ranking doesn’t component in sacks — most definitely the anxiety where Brady shines brightest. Brady took correct 22 sacks this season, tied for the 2nd-fewest among certified quarterbacks, despite main the NFL in total dropbacks this season (3.0% sack rate). Regardless, his put come the stop of the sport as a passer remains intact, ranking within the stop 10 in 14 key NGS passing splits in 2021, in conjunction with six splits internal the stop five. 

Brady’s mastery of his salvage offense and opposing defensive traits has fueled his Hall of Reputation profession. So, it is unsurprising Brady performed because the fourth-most productive passer on third downs, with a 96 passing ranking. Brady’s funding in his properly being has additionally paid dividends, with his appropriate arm but to display signs of decline. Thus, despite his evolved age, Brady clearly suits within the Bruce Arians offensive draw that runs vertical routes at the absolute top rate within the league since 2019 (33%). Brady carried out a max passing ranking (99) focused on vertical routes this season. Adding to defensive coordinators’ complications when sport planning for the Buccaneers offense this season, Brady additionally owned the 2nd-most productive ranking on passes below 10 air yards. 

Key scores by misfortune:

Throughout the deal with box: 88 (5th)Under 10 air yards: 87 (2nd)Deep passes: 91 (10th)

Passing Fetch: 87 Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 9thLast 3 seasons: 2020: 83 (DNQ) | 2019: 93 (Seventh) | 2018: 87 (14th)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +153.8 (sixth)EPA/strive: +0.26 (Seventh)Handiest sport: Week 18 vs. Eagles (97)Prescott has had the most up-and-down season of any quarterback within the league. At his most productive, he recorded a passing ranking above 88 in a league-main five video games this season. This involves his Week 18 performance in opposition to the Eagles, when he earned the absolute top single-sport passing ranking of any quarterback over the previous four seasons (97). If the Cowboys are going to non-public a Big Bowl sprint, Prescott will occupy to lead some distance flung from video games love he had for the length of his midseason “shuffle.” Prescott set up a passing ranking below 77 in five of six video games from Weeks 9 thru 14. The ideal assorted playoff quarterback to occupy even four such video games this season is Ben Roethlisberger (8).

Prescott returns to the playoffs after a two-year absence, in conjunction with a 2020 season that used to be decrease quick by a gruesome ankle ruin. Despite that ruin, Prescott’s mobility has come wait on solid. He ranks 2nd across extra than one efficiency and production metrics that measure throwing on the sprint (8+ mph) this season, in conjunction with Passing Fetch.

The Cowboys will face a 49ers team within the Big Wild Card Spherical that has been adept at disrupting the pocket with their entrance four this season. The 49ers’ protection generated the fifth-absolute top tension rate this season despite blitzing at the eighth-lowest rate. Prescott led the NFL this season with 23 TD passes in opposition to the blitz (seven bigger than any assorted QB), but he has been extra efficient on a throw-by-throw basis when defenses drop 7+ defenders in protection. Prescott’s league-main 72.9 completion percentage in opposition to non-blitzes helped him occupy the sixth-absolute top passing ranking in these conditions (15th vs. the blitz).

Key scores by misfortune:

Vs. no blitz: 88 (sixth)Quick passes: 86 (sixth)On the sprint: 91 (2nd)

Arizona Cardinals
·
Yr 3

Passing Fetch: 87 Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 10thLast 2 seasons: 2020: 86 (18th) | 2019: 83 (21st)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +121.4 (9th)EPA/strive: +0.26 (sixth)Handiest sport: Week 4 vs. Rams (89)This year has been a memoir of two seasons for Murray. An early MVP favorite, Murray began off the season with seven straight video games recording a minimum of an 83 passing grade, main the Cardinals to be the most straightforward undefeated team thru Week 7. On the replacement hand, Murray suffered an ruin within the Cardinals’ Week 8 loss to the Packers and used to be compelled to fail to determine three video games. Murray hasn’t been in a position to reach the the same level of performance since getting again from ruin in Week 13, incomes a passing grade below 82 in every of his final six video games. Share of his struggles can even be attributed to the absence of his run-to receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, who has disregarded the previous four video games and won’t play on Monday night.

With all that being said, there are mute hundreds of reasons to be considering about Murray’s future because the cornerstone of the Cardinals franchise. He has proven enchancment in every season as a professional, critically from an accuracy standpoint. Murray carried out +3.9 p.c of his passes over anticipated this season, trailing easiest Joe Burrow. His elite mobility has repeatedly allowed him to lead some distance flung from tension; Murray’s been compelled at a bottom-two rate in every of his three seasons. On the replacement hand, Murray’s became a corner in his performance below tension this season, with the 2nd-absolute top passing ranking within the league.

Key scores by misfortune: 

Under tension: 89 (2nd)In-rhythm: 94 (4th)Birth air the deal with box: 91 (5th)

San Francisco 49ers
·
Yr 8

Passing Fetch: 87

Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 11thLast 3 seasons: 2020: 84 (DNQ) | 2019: 97 (3rd) | 2018: 81 (DNQ)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +117.6 (10th)EPA/strive: +0.28 (5th)Handiest sport: Week 1 vs. Lions (91)Garoppolo took elephantine relief of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s draw this season. Delivering the ball on time to his explosive teammates in home used to be a key component within the 49ers incomes a playoff berth. Garoppolo used to be the most straightforward quarterback to moderate bigger than 10 yards per strive on play-dash passes (10.5), helping him gain the stop play-dash passing ranking (97). His excessive passing ranking on mercurial passes (decrease than 2.5 seconds) used to be similarly driven by a league-main 8.3 yards per strive.

The 49ers had been in a position to develop hundreds of explosive plays within the passing sport without the specter of the deep run. Garoppolo threw deep on correct 6 p.c of his makes an are attempting this season, the 2nd-lowest rate within the NFL. As a change, he targeted the intermediate anxiety (10-19 air yards) with in-breaking routes, which he led the NFL by a cozy rate (48 p.c, 10 percentage points higher than any assorted QB). Garoppolo hit his receivers in race and allow them to form the work, with the 49ers as a team gaining a league-main +782 yards after the boom over anticipated this season. Breakout receiver Deebo Samuel accounted for bigger than half of of that (+403 YAC over anticipated), main all receivers.

Key scores by misfortune:

Play-dash: 97 (1st)Quick passes: 88 (4th)Vs. the blitz: 97 (4th)

Philadelphia Eagles
·
Yr 2

Passing Fetch: 84 Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 12thLast season: 73 in 2020 (did not qualify)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +63.4 (17th)EPA/strive: +0.16 (17th)Handiest sport: Week 15 vs. Washington (90)Hurts will non-public his playoff debut this weekend in his promising first season as a elephantine-time starter. The 2nd-year professional had a productive year thru the air, ending within the stop five in six key NGS passing splits en path to the 12th-most productive passing ranking within the league. Hurts ancient his mobility to make stronger the Eagles’ aerial assault, scoring high five in outside-the-deal with-box passing (99, T-1st) and on-the-sprint passes (89, 4th).

Whereas Hurts flexed his ability area in quite a lot of the on-the-dawdle passing metrics, he showed he mute has room to grow when operating internal the pocket, scoring come the underside as a passer internal the deal with box. He easiest generated a 69 ranking on mercurial passes, which ranks 30th within the league. On the replacement hand, when he used to be in-rhythm and extending plays, his ranking — and thus, his ranking — rocketed up the charts. Or not it is no surprise, then, that Hurts held the ball earlier than passing on moderate longer than any assorted certified QB this season.

Key scores by misfortune:

Play-dash: 92 (5th)Extended dropbacks: 94 (2nd)Birth air the deal with box: 99 (T-1st)

Las Vegas Raiders
·
Yr 8

Passing Fetch: 83Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 14thLast 3 seasons: 2020: 90 (10th) | 2019: 96 (4th) | 2018: 86 (17th)Total run EPA on makes an are attempting: +108.0 (11th)EPA/strive: +0.18 (13th)Handiest sport: Week 2 vs. Steelers (88)In his eighth NFL season, Carr will lastly non-public his playoff debut after lacking the Raiders’ closing playoff sport in 2016 on account of ruin.

Although he did not stand out from his counterparts in many areas, he additionally did not ranking within the underside-five in any of the key NGS passing splits. Carr’s most productive attribute has been his accuracy, ending extra passes than anticipated at the fifth-absolute top rate this season. His accuracy shined on downfield passes, ensuing in fair appropriate-looking out scores on intermediate (99) and deep (92) passes. That form of consistency no doubt performed a segment within the dilapidated atmosphere Vegas’ single-season passing yards memoir this year.

The Raiders, who rode a four-sport decide scramble to a postseason berth, wanted hundreds of slack-sport magic to get alive. Unsurprisingly, Carr drove the Raiders’ diverse comebacks this season, adding the third-most decide likelihood on his run makes an are attempting of any certified QB.

Key scores by misfortune:

Quick passes: 84 (10th)In-rhythm: 80 (25th)Extended dropbacks: 88 (5th)

Novel England Patriots
·
Rookie

Passing Fetch: 83Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 15thTotal run EPA on makes an are attempting: +79.1 (16th)EPA/strive: +0.16 (16th)Handiest sport: Week 10 vs. Browns (91)Jones used to be the most straightforward rookie to carry out with the season with a high-25 Passing Fetch, a definite CPOE and a definite passing EPA. Jack-of-all, grasp-of-none (statistically talking), Jones did not occupy a single ranking that ranked within the stop five or bottom five of 20 assorted passing splits.

He enters Saturday’s matchup with the Funds because the first rookie QB to commence a playoff sport since Lamar Jackson within the 2018 Wild Card Spherical.

Key scores by misfortune:

Third down: 92 (10th)Vs. blitz: 86 (13th)Under 10 air yards: 80 (10th)

Pittsburgh Steelers
·
Yr 18

Passing Fetch: 70 Ranking among 31 certified QBs: 31stLast 3 seasons: 2020: 83 (24th) | 2019: 76 (DNQ) | 2018: 85 (21st)Total Cross EPA on Attempts: +10.0 (26th)EPA/strive: +0.02 (28th)Handiest sport: Week 9 vs. Bears (86)Heading into the final week of the fashioned season, the Steelers wanted three outcomes to dawdle their solution to clinch a wild-card anxiety:

They wanted to beat the Ravens.The Jaguars to upset the Colts.Chargers-Raiders not to total in a tie.The potentialities had been not in their prefer. But, closing Sunday we seen Roethlisberger lead the Steelers to his profession-excessive seventh sport-successful drive of the season; the Jags blew out the Colts; and the Raiders opted for a sport-successful field goal, propelling the 9-7-1 Steelers into the playoffs. No longer irascible if this in point of fact is Mammoth Ben’s final NFL season.

Despite his slack-sport heroics this year, Roethlisberger used to be the most straightforward postseason quarterback who did not execrable among the stop 15 by our contemporary metric. Handiest one assorted quarterback began a minimum of eight video games, led his team to the playoffs and scored below an 82 within the NGS Passing Fetch: Lamar Jackson, who entered the postseason with a 78 passing ranking for the length of his rookie season in 2018.

Key scores by misfortune:

Fourth quarter: 84 (11th)Vs. blitz: 81 (20th)Extended dropbacks: 73 (28th)

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